The Swiss Ban on Minarets Confirms the Contact Hypothesis

In November 2009, Switzerland held a referendum that sought approval for a constitutional ban on minarets. 57.5% of the voters supported the ban. The ban was supported by the Swiss right wing party SVP. Poster ads that supported the ban used images as the ones below, tapping on anti-muslim sentiments and on diffuse fear towards muslims. Thus, the referendum has been widely interpreted as a vote against foreigners by the media.

A student of mine, Michael Jäckli, had the idea to use archival polling data from the referendum for a test of Alport's Contact Hypothesis. It suggests that "interpersonal contact is one of the most effective ways to reduce prejudice between majority and minority group members". Thus, Swiss municipalities (the smallest unit for which polling data is available from the Swiss bureau of statistics) with a low percentage of foreign nationals should show a high rate of approval of the ban, while municipalities with a high percentage of foreigners should show a lower rate of approval.
In order to test this assumption, Michael obtained the agreement to the ban on the municipal level from the Swiss bureau of statistics, along with indicators for educational level and social-economic status for the municipalities. He was then able to regress the agreement for the ban on the percentage of foreigners:
As visible in the plot, municipalities with a below-average percentage of foreigners tended to accept the ban at above-average levels. Without controlling for other variables, an increase of the percentage of foreigners in a municipality by 1% would decrease its agreement to the ban by 0.37%.
As lower education and social status is usually associated with more right-wing political views, Michael tested whether the negative relationship between the percentage of foreigners and the approval of the ban still holds under statistical control of these two variables. The according stepwise hierarchical regression is presented below.
It reveals that low economic status and low educational levels are indeed associated with an acceptance of the ban. But even if these factors are controlled for, there is still a significant yet small negative effect of the percentage of foreigners on the approval of the ban: Municipalities with a low percentage of foreigners tended to support the ban.
Why does an increase of the percentage of foreigners decrease the support for the ban on minarets? Possibly because municipalities can profit from their foreign population: An inspection of the bivariate correlations of the measurement variables (see below) reveals that the percentage of foreigners is associated with higher levels of education and social-economic status.
The R code that produced these results can be found below. Michael's data set can be downloaded in .CSV-Format here.

# import the data

minarettdata <- read.csv(file = "minarettdata.csv")

# inspect the data



# make the data available


# generate the plot

plot(foreigners, minarett_approval, main = "Approval of the minaret ban in all Swiss municipalities\nas a function of municipal share of foreign nationals", xlab = "Municipal share of foreign nationals (in %)", ylab = "Municipal share of voters approving the ban (in %)")

abline(lm(minarett_approval ~ foreigners), col = "blue")

abline(h = 57.5, lty = 2)

abline(v = 22, lty = 2)

text(x = 60, y= 48, round(coef(lm(minarett_approval ~ foreigners))[2], digits = 2), col = "blue")

text(x = 22, y = 26, "Swiss-wide share of foreign nationals (22%)", cex = .70, pos = 4)

text(x = 49, y = 60, "Swiss-wide approval of the\nban on minarets (57.5%)", cex = .70, pos = 4)



# test the stepwise regression


lmodel.1 <- lm(minarett_approval ~ SES + edu_level)



lmodel.2 <- lm(minarett_approval ~ SES + edu_level + foreigners)



# determine the significance of the increase in R-squared

anova(lmodel.1, lmodel.2)

# print the correlation table




# clean up

rm(minarettdata, lmodel.1, lmodel.2)

Labels: , ,


Anonymous lupus modestus said...

was wir schon immer ahnten - nun kommt's evidenzbasiert!
lupus modestus

4:58 PM  
Blogger ampoule led e14 said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

4:43 PM  
Blogger ampoule led e14 said...

Thanks a lot for sharing this valuable info with us ..
ampoule led e14

4:44 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Read all the related Posts:

How to do Website Compatibility Testing (Made Simple)

7 steps to select Automated Software Testing Tools

64 Software Manual Testing Interview Questions

Why need Software Testing Tools?

Overview of Manual Software Testing

Embedded Software Testing - Overview

Automation vs Manual Software Testing

Standard definition of software testing

What parameters to consider for Performance Testing?

5:20 AM  
Anonymous writing a dissertation said...

It reveals that low budget and low educational levels are indeed associated with an approval of the ban. But even if these factors are handled for, there is still a essential yet little negative effect of the quantity of and also the on the approval of the ban

11:26 PM  
Blogger Lan Linh said...

Thanks for the best blog. it was very useful for me.keep sharing such ideas in the future as well. Thanks for giving me the useful information. I think I need it!
rollercoaster creator
super adventure pals
madness project nexus hacked
kizi games
kizi 4
mickey mouse game

3:29 AM  
Blogger Chang bui thi said...

The article you have shared here very awesome. I really like and appreciated your work. I read deeply your article, the points you have mentioned in this article are useful

i like play games friv4school online and play games2girls 2 Download facebook

3:06 AM  
Blogger Facebook Descargar said...

I found a lot of information here to create this actually best for all newbie here. Thank you for this information.
download descargar facebook gratis para Android celular and download free descargar facebook apk and descargar facebook gratis , descarga facebook

5:45 AM  
Anonymous tetris unblocked said...

Thank you for another wonferdul article. Where else could anyone get that kind of information in such an ideal way of writing? I have a presentation next week, and I am on the look for such information.
cool math games| coolmathgames| cool math| math games| cool math a-z| coolmath games
b cubed| b-cubed| barbie games| friv 4 school| friv4school| free online games

4:19 AM  
Blogger Vimax Original Pembesar Mr.P Herbal said...

artikelnya sangat membantu thanks for sharing
kunjungi web kami gan => www.vimaxkapsuloriginal.com

1:57 AM  
Anonymous unblocked games 77 said...

Thank for your sharing, it made me realize many things. I know I'm not good with people and it makes you sad. You do not worry because I will change and we are friends forever.
ggg games for girls , coolmath4kids games , friv 4 , friv 2 , unblocked games happy wheels , juegos de autos de carrera , pou online , kizi 2 , juegos los simpson , kids games online , unblocked games happy wheels

4:29 AM  
Blogger Ngoc Ha said...

Thanks for sharing this quality information with us. I really enjoyed reading. I think I need it.
Games for girls|
Kizi 1|
Kizi 2

2:20 PM  
Blogger lolyta said...

I came across the serach engine and find your website, you have great and nice blog, Thanks for sharing, God

bless you


vimax izon asli
jual vimax izon
harga vimax izon
vimax izon canada
vimax izon Original
khasiat vimax canada
vimax izon
vimax izon


opium spray
opium spray asli
jual opium spray


selaput dara buatan
selaput dara keperawanan




Vmenplus Herbal
Vmenplus import
Vmenplus Asli
Vmenplus herbal
Obat Vmenplus

11:20 PM  
Blogger pubsquash John said...

Thanks for sharing your info. I really appreciate your efforts and I will be waiting for your further write
Kizi 123|
Friv 234|

3:42 AM  
Blogger bibikafu said...

Thanks for your great article friend, i get new information, new ideas to do somethings, i hope you will share again, i keep waiting for next post, thanks.
Friv 4
Kizi 3

2:12 AM  
Blogger Headsoccer Online said...

Today, I read it... Thanks a lot for sharing this valuable info with us ...
Run 3
Head Soccer
Juegos De Terror
Mahjong Free Games
Cool math 4 kids

4:17 AM  
Blogger Pants Fancy said...

I feel very happy about sharing your post, it makes me feel excited. Thank you !
fancy pants 3
fancy pants 3
fancy pants 3
fancy pants
fancy pants 4
fancy pants 2
fancy pants adventure 3
fancy pants adventure

9:04 AM  
Blogger Pants Fancy said...

I feel very happy about that. We thank you for sharing this.

fancy pants 3
fancy pants 3
fancy pants
fancy pants
fancy pants 3 hacked
fancy pants 3 hacked

8:35 AM  
Anonymous baixar mobogenie said...

Thank you because you shared this post for everybody. I like this post.

baixar whatsapp gratis | baixar mobogenie gratis | baixar facebook gratis

4:54 PM  
Blogger ka maz said...

I like the flash and free games. Here is one of my favorite games today.
Friv 10

2:55 AM  
Blogger Man 3 Return said...

I feel very happy about what you've shared. If possible you should try to take the time to participate in our game, it will make you relaxed. Thank you !

return man 3
return man 2
return man
return man 3 unblocked
return man 3 hacked
return man 3 zombies

9:34 AM  
Blogger Jasmine Thompson said...

If you maintain distributing effectively prepared articles or blog posts just like this then I will often keep returning back again to your weblog. Really excellent content.
agario|agar io|agar.io|agar|agario game|agario skins|agario extended|agario mods|agario|agar io

11:13 AM  
Blogger Christina Lorence said...

I am sure that I can’t write a term paper by own. That is why I choose Best term paper writing services for getting help. They guided me properly to complete my term paper.

11:13 AM  
Blogger Alice Taylor said...

Any way I'll be subscribing to your feed and I hope you post again soon.

monkey go happy | monkey go happy 2 | learn to fly | learn to fly 3 | pacman | pacman game | mahjong | mahjong games | cat mario 4 | cat mario | happy wheels 2 | happy wheels

10:12 AM  
Anonymous Yepi said...

You need to kill time, you need entertainment. Refer to our website. hope you get the most comfort.
Thanks you for sharing!
Friv Games

9:42 AM  
Blogger Hieu Nguyen said...

you'd have time to look these kids active. Please visit our website and let us play the game interesting.
Thanks for sharing !
Friv 10
Kizi 10
Yepi 2

7:34 AM  
Blogger tranbaongoc said...

You are stressed and tired, you need entertainment. Refer to our website. hope you get the most comfortable.
Kizi 4

2:08 PM  
Anonymous pari said...

Womens Day 2016
Women's Day 2016
Womens Day Images 2016
Good Friday 2016
Good Friday Images 2016
Good Friday Wallpapers 2016
Mahashivratri 2016
Mahashivratri Images 2016
Mahashivratri Wallpapers 2016
Easter 2016
Easter Sunday 2016
Easter Images 2016
Easter Wallpapers 2016
Bundesliga 2016 Live Streaming
Watch Bundesliga 2016 Live Streaming
ICC T20 Live Score
ICC T20 Live Streaming
Extra Cover Net Live Score
Extra Cover Net Live
Happy Holi 2016
History Of Holi

10:15 AM  

Post a Comment

<< Home